Dead heat between Clinton and Trump in new Time-for-change model

The Time-for-change model released an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 48.6% for Clinton, and 51.4% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be treated with caution, since they may contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Trump can currently count on 50.8% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. This value is 0.6 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Time-for-change model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The most recent PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 4.9 percentage points less compared to the results of the Time-for-change model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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