Dead heat between Clinton and Trump in new Time-for-change model
The Time-for-change model released an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 48.6% for Clinton, and 51.4% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be treated with caution, since they may contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
Trump can currently count on 50.8% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. This value is 0.6 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Time-for-change model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 4.9 percentage points less compared to the results of the Time-for-change model.