Dead heat between Clinton and Trump in new Ipsos/Reuters poll
By Ipsos/Reuters published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, participants were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Ipsos/Reuters poll results
Of those who responded, 40.0% said that they plan to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 39.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The Internet poll was in the field between August 25 and August 30. The sample size was 1404 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's sampling error of +/-2.7 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, because they can contain large biases. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 49.4% for Clinton and 50.6% for Trump. In the most recent Ipsos/Reuters poll on August 27 Clinton obtained 54.6%, while Trump obtained only 0.0%.
Results compared to other polls
Trump currently achieves 47.1% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls. This value is 3.5 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Ipsos/Reuters poll. This difference is outside the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 4.1 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's sampling error.
