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Clinton with 7-point lead in new expert survey


The PollyVote team has completed its 9th survey of elections experts to forecast the 2016 presidential election. In this survey, conducted between August 29 and 31, 13 academics from a variety of colleges and universities responded.

All respondents expected a Democratic win. The average forecast is that Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton will receive 53.5% of the two-party vote, with individual forecasts ranging from 52.1% to 55.8%. This value is the same as yesterday’s PollyVote prediction and 0.8 percentage points higher than the 52.7% for Clinton in the previous expert survey.

Polly thanks the experts who participated in this round, namely

  1. Randall Adkins (University of Nebraska Omaha)
  2. Lonna Rae Atkeson (University of New Mexico)
  3. John Coleman (University of Minnesota)
  4. George Edwards (Texas A&M University)
  5. John Geer (Vanderbilt University)
  6. Sandy Maisel (Colby College)
  7. Michael Martinez (University of Florida)
  8. Thomas Patterson (Harvard University)
  9. David Redlawsk (University of Delaware)
  10. Larry Sabato (University of Virginia)
  11. Michael Tesler (University of California, Irvine)
  12. Charles Walcott (Virginia Tech)

and one expert who preferred to remain anonymous.

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