The PollyVote team has completed its 9th survey of elections experts to forecast the 2016 presidential election. In this survey, conducted between August 29 and 31, 13 academics from a variety of colleges and universities responded.
All respondents expected a Democratic win. The average forecast is that Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton will receive 53.5% of the two-party vote, with individual forecasts ranging from 52.1% to 55.8%. This value is the same as yesterday’s PollyVote prediction and 0.8 percentage points higher than the 52.7% for Clinton in the previous expert survey.
Polly thanks the experts who participated in this round, namely
- Randall Adkins (University of Nebraska Omaha)
- Lonna Rae Atkeson (University of New Mexico)
- John Coleman (University of Minnesota)
- George Edwards (Texas A&M University)
- John Geer (Vanderbilt University)
- Sandy Maisel (Colby College)
- Michael Martinez (University of Florida)
- Thomas Patterson (Harvard University)
- David Redlawsk (University of Delaware)
- Larry Sabato (University of Virginia)
- Michael Tesler (University of California, Irvine)
- Charles Walcott (Virginia Tech)
and one expert who preferred to remain anonymous.