Clinton leads by 5 points in latest PPP poll
By PPP published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, participants were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
PPP poll results
Of those who answered the question, 48.0% said that they are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 43.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from August 26 to August 28 with 881 participants. There is a sampling error of +/-3.3 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, as they often contain substantial biases. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 52.8% for Clinton and 47.3% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
Looking at an average of polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 52.9%. Relative to numbers in the PPP poll Clinton's poll average is 0.1 percentage points higher. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.6% of the two-party vote. That is, the combined PollyVote is 0.8 points above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.
