Polly the parrot today forecasts a national two-party vote share of 53.4% for Clinton and 46.6% for Trump.
This is what Polly's components predict
There is broad consensus among the six available component methods: Five predict a win for Clinton and one speculates that Trump will win.
According to the econometric models Trump is currently in the lead by 50.9%.
Expert surveys predict a vote share of 52.7% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. With a vote share of 49.1% the econometric models deviate the most from the PollyVote forecast.
Compared to the previous week there have been the largest changes in the prediction markets. Clinton wins sixteen percentage points.
With 54.2% in index models the vote share for the Democrats is particularly low when compared to past election years. This is the lowest value at that time in the campaign since 2008, when Barack Obama ran against John McCain. At that time, index models expected a vote share of 53.2% for Democratic candidate Barack Obama, in the end he reached 53.7%.