The Big-issue model is included in the index models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 51.3% for Clinton, and 48.7% for Trump. In comparison, on August 31, Clinton was predicted to win only 51.1% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single index models often incorporate substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single index models, the recommended strategy use combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
Results in comparison to other index models
Looking at an average of index models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 54.2%. Compared to numbers in the Big-issue index model Clinton's index model average is 2.9 percentage points better.
The Big-issue model compared with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.6% of the two-party vote. The results of the Big-issue model for Clinton are thus 2.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.