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538 (polls-plus) model: Clinton with small lead

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The 538 (polls-plus) model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will collect 52.2% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 47.8%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, one should not have too much faith in the results of an individual econometric model. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to other econometric models

Clinton currently achieves 49.1% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. Compared to numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model Clinton's econometric model average is 3.1 percentage points worse.

The 538 (polls-plus) model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the 538 (polls-plus) model for Clinton are thus 1.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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