Virtual tie between Trump and Clinton in latest UPI/CVOTER poll
By Results of a new national poll carried out by UPI/CVOTER were circulated. The poll asked respondents for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
UPI/CVOTER poll results
Of those who responded, 50.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 47.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted via Internet from August 21 to August 27, among a random sample of 1157 likely voters. If one takes into account the poll's error margin of +/-2.9 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be regarded with caution, since they can include large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the recommended strategy rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 48.5% for Clinton and 51.6% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Trump currently runs at 46.9% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls. This value is 4.7 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the UPI/CVOTER poll. This deviation is outside the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 46.4% of the two-party vote. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 5.2 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's margin of error.
