Tossup between Trump and Clinton in new Electoral-cycle model

The Electoral-cycle model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 48.6% for Clinton, and 51.4% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be interpreted with caution, since they can contain substantial biases. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Trump currently achieves 50.8% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. In comparison to numbers in the Electoral-cycle model Trump's econometric model average is 0.6 percentage points lower.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Electoral-cycle model for Trump are thus 4.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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