Tossup between Trump and Clinton in new Electoral-cycle model
The Electoral-cycle model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 48.6% for Clinton, and 51.4% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be interpreted with caution, since they can contain substantial biases. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
Trump currently achieves 50.8% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. In comparison to numbers in the Electoral-cycle model Trump's econometric model average is 0.6 percentage points lower.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Electoral-cycle model for Trump are thus 4.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.