Marginal lead for Trump in recent PPP (D) poll
By PPP (D) released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
PPP (D) poll results
According to the results, 48.0% of participants are going to cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 43.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from August 26 to August 28 among 881 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-3.4 percentage points. This means that the poll results for both candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be interpreted with caution, as they can incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 47.3% for Clinton and 52.8% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Trump is currently at 46.9% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls. Relative to numbers in the PPP (D) poll Trump's poll average is 5.9 percentage points lower. This margin is outside the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 46.4% of the two-party vote. That is, the combined PollyVote is 6.4 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's error margin.
