Primary model: Trump with small lead

The Primary model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 47.5% for Clinton, and 52.5% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. In general, one should not rely too much on the results of a single econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.

Results compared to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 50.8%. Compared to numbers in the Primary model Trump's econometric model average is 1.7 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 46.3% of the two-party vote. The results of the Primary model for Trump are thus 6.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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