New Lockerbie model: Clinton and Trump virtually tied
The Lockerbie model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 50.4% for Clinton, and 49.6% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they can incorporate large errors. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results vs. other econometric models
Clinton can currently count on 49.2% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. Relative to numbers in the Lockerbie model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.2 percentage points worse.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.6% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 3.2 percentage points more compared to the results of the Lockerbie model.