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Leading indicators model: Clinton with small lead


The Leading indicators model provided an updated prediction of the election result. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 52.0% for Clinton, and 48.0% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. In general, one should not put too much trust in the results of an individual econometric model. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton can currently count on 49.2% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. Compared to numbers in the Leading indicators model Clinton's econometric model average is 2.8 percentage points lower.

The Leading indicators model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.6% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.6 percentage points more compared to the results of the Leading indicators model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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