Monmouth released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Monmouth poll results
Of those who replied, 49.0% said that they would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 42.0% declared that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from August 25 to August 28, among a random sample of 689 participants. Given the poll's sampling error of +/-3.7 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often incorporate large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 53.9% for Clinton and 46.2% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 53.2% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls. This value is 0.7 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Monmouth poll. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.6% of the two-party vote. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 0.3 points below polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error indicates that this deviation is insignificant.