Latest Keys to the White House index model: Clinton and Trump neck-and-neck

The Keys to the White House model is part of the index models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 51.5% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 48.5%.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single index models, as they sometimes incorporate large errors. Rather, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other index models

If we look at an average of index models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 54.1%. Compared to numbers in the Keys to the White House index model Clinton's index model average is 2.6 percentage points better.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.6% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.1 percentage points more compared to the results of the Keys to the White House model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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