The Jérôme & Jérôme model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently predicts a tie, with each candidate winning 50% of the two-party vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, one should not have too much faith in the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models has Clinton at 49.2% of the two-party vote. In comparison to the average forecast of other models Clinton performed 0.9 percentage points better in the Jérôme & Jérôme model.
The Jérôme & Jérôme model compared with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.6% and Trump 46.5% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 3.5 percentage points less when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.