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Issues and Leaders model: Trump trails by a small margin


The Issues and Leaders model enters the index models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 51.9% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 48.1%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, index models are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not be overly confident the results of a single index model. Instead of trusting the results from single index models, the best practice is to use combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other index models

An average of recent index models sees Clinton at 54.0% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.1 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.6% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.7 percentage points more compared to the results of the Issues and Leaders model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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