Issue-index model: Clinton with clear lead
The Issue-index model released an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 56.2% for Clinton, and 43.8% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single index models, because they can contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single index models, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
Results vs. other index models
If we look at an average of index models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 54.1%. Compared to numbers in the Issue-index index model Clinton's index model average is 2.1 percentage points worse.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.6% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.6 percentage points less compared to the results of the Issue-index model.