The Fiscal model model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 48.2% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 51.8%.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not be too confident the results of a single econometric model. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models has Trump at 50.8% of the two-party vote. This value is 1 percentage point lower than corresponding numbers in the Fiscal model model.
The Fiscal model model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 5.3 percentage points less compared to the results of the Fiscal model model.