Fiscal model model: Trump is in the lead

The Fiscal model model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 48.2% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 51.8%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not be too confident the results of a single econometric model. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models has Trump at 50.8% of the two-party vote. This value is 1 percentage point lower than corresponding numbers in the Fiscal model model.

The Fiscal model model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The current PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 5.3 percentage points less compared to the results of the Fiscal model model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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