Fair model: Trump with clear lead
The Fair model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 44.0% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 56.0%.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be treated with caution, since they may incorporate substantial errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, forecasting research recommends to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
Looking at an average of econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 50.8%. This value is 5.2 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Fair model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 9.5 percentage points less compared to the results of the Fair model.