DeSart model: Trump is in the lead

The DeSart model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 48.1% for Clinton, and 51.9% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Individual models may include substantial errors, and should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 50.9%. This value is 1 percentage point lower than respective numbers in the DeSart model.

The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 5.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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