DeSart model: Trump is in the lead
The DeSart model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 48.1% for Clinton, and 51.9% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Individual models may include substantial errors, and should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
If we look at an average of econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 50.9%. This value is 1 percentage point lower than respective numbers in the DeSart model.
The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 5.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.