Dead heat between Clinton and Trump in latest Lewis-Beck & Tien model

The Lewis-Beck & Tien model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 51.1% for Clinton, and 48.9% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Single models may incorporate large biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results vs. other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.2%. Relative to numbers in the Lewis-Beck & Tien model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.9 percentage points lower.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.6% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.5 percentage points more compared to the results of the Lewis-Beck & Tien model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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