Dead heat between Clinton and Trump in latest Lewis-Beck & Tien model
The Lewis-Beck & Tien model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 51.1% for Clinton, and 48.9% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Single models may incorporate large biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results vs. other econometric models
If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.2%. Relative to numbers in the Lewis-Beck & Tien model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.9 percentage points lower.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.6% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.5 percentage points more compared to the results of the Lewis-Beck & Tien model.