Polly the parrot expects win for Clinton
As of today, Polly concludes that Clinton will garner 53.5% of the national two-party vote, compared to 46.5% for Trump.
What Polly's components predict
Polly's component methods widely agree on who is ahead: Five anticipate a victory for Clinton and one anticipates that Trump will win.
According to the econometric models Trump is right now leading with 50.8%.
Index models predict a vote share of 54.2% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. The prediction markets present the largest deviation from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 57.9% of the vote.
Trump lost 43.3 percentage point in the polls compared to the previous month, no other component has shown a shift this large.
With 52.8% in combined polls the vote share for the Democrats is notably high in comparison to previous election years. This is the highest value at that time in the campaign since 2000. At that time, combined polls expected a vote share of 54.4% for Democratic candidate.