Quinnipiac published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, participants were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Quinnipiac poll results
The results show that 51.0% of participants plan to cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 41.0% plan to cast a ballot for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted via phone from August 18 to August 24 among 1498 likely voters. Considering the poll's error margin of +/-2.5 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they may contain large errors. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 55.4% for Clinton and 44.6% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 53.1% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls. In comparison to numbers in the Quinnipiac poll Clinton's poll average is 2.3 percentage points lower. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.6% of the two-party vote. This means that the combined PollyVote is 1.8 points below polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this difference is negligible.