Clinton and Trump virtually tied in new Big-issue index model
The Big-issue model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 51.1% for Clinton, and 48.9% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Single index models often incorporate large biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single index models, one should use combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.
Comparison to other index models
Looking at an average of index models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 54.0%. This value is 2.9 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the Big-issue index model.
The Big-issue model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.6% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.5 percentage points more compared to the results of the Big-issue model.