Clinton and Trump neck-and-neck in latest Vox.Com model
The Vox.Com model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 49.1% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 50.9%.
Putting the results in context
Single models can contain substantial errors, and should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Looking at an average of econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 50.8%. Compared to numbers in the Vox.Com model Trump's econometric model average is 0.1 percentage points worse.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Vox.Com model for Trump are thus 4.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.