538 (polls-plus) model: Clinton with small lead

The 538 (polls-plus) model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 52.2% for Clinton, and 47.8% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, you should not put too much trust in the results of an individual econometric model. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to other econometric models

Clinton can currently count on 49.1% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. This value is 3.1 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model.

The 538 (polls-plus) model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.6% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.4 percentage points more compared to the results of the 538 (polls-plus) model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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