Virtual tie between Clinton and Trump in latest Big-issue index model
The Big-issue model is captured in the index models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will collect 51.1% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 48.9%.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, index models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, one should not rely too much on the results of an individual index model. At least, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other index models
An average of recent index models has Clinton at 54.0% of the two-party vote. Relative to numbers in the Big-issue index model Clinton's index model average is 2.9 percentage points better.
The Big-issue model compared with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. The results of the Big-issue model for Clinton are thus 2.6 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.