Virtual tie between Clinton and Trump in latest Big-issue index model

The Big-issue model is captured in the index models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will collect 51.1% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 48.9%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, index models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, one should not rely too much on the results of an individual index model. At least, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other index models

An average of recent index models has Clinton at 54.0% of the two-party vote. Relative to numbers in the Big-issue index model Clinton's index model average is 2.9 percentage points better.

The Big-issue model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. The results of the Big-issue model for Clinton are thus 2.6 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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