Dead heat between Trump and Clinton in new Time-for-change model
The Time-for-change model published an updated prediction of the election result. It currently predicts a major vote share of 48.6% for Clinton, and 51.4% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they often contain large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
Looking at an average of econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 50.8%. Compared to numbers in the Time-for-change model Trump's econometric model average is 0.6 percentage points worse.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 46.3% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 5.1 percentage points less compared to the results of the Time-for-change model.