Dead heat between Trump and Clinton in new Time-for-change model

The Time-for-change model published an updated prediction of the election result. It currently predicts a major vote share of 48.6% for Clinton, and 51.4% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they often contain large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 50.8%. Compared to numbers in the Time-for-change model Trump's econometric model average is 0.6 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 46.3% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 5.1 percentage points less compared to the results of the Time-for-change model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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