Dead heat between Clinton and Trump in latest Lockerbie model
The Lockerbie model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently predicts a major vote share of 50.4% for Clinton, and 49.6% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be regarded with caution, because they can contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Results compared to other econometric models
If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.2%. This value is 1.2 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Lockerbie model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. The results of the Lockerbie model for Clinton are thus 3.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.