Trump and Clinton neck-and-neck in new Vox.Com model

The Vox.Com model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 49.1% for Clinton, and 50.9% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, you should not be overly confident the results of an individual econometric model. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Trump can currently count on 50.8% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. Relative to numbers in the Vox.Com model Trump's econometric model average is 0.1 percentage points lower.

The Vox.Com model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 46.3% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 4.6 percentage points less compared to the results of the Vox.Com model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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