Monmouth University released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Monmouth University poll results
The results show that 49.0% of interviewees would give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 42.0% plan to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 25 to August 28 via phone. A total of 689 likely voters responded. If one takes into account the poll's margin of error of +/-3.8 percentage points, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, because they often include large errors. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in figures of 46.2% for Clinton and 53.9% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls has Trump at 46.9% of the two-party vote. Relative to numbers in the Monmouth University poll Trump's poll average is 7 percentage points worse. This difference is outside the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 46.3% of the two-party vote. This means that the PollyVote is 7.6 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's sampling error.