Primary model: Trump is in the lead
The Primary model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 47.5% for Clinton, and 52.5% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be regarded with caution, because they often incorporate large biases. Rather than trusting the results from single models, the best practice is to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Comparison to other econometric models
Trump currently achieves 50.8% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. This value is 1.7 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Primary model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 46.3% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 6.2 percentage points less compared to the results of the Primary model.