Suffolk University released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Suffolk University poll results
According to the results, 50.0% of participants will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 41.0% intend to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from July 25 to July 27. A total of 500 likely voters responded. The sampling error is +/-4.4 percentage points. This means that the poll results for the candidates of both parties differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, because they can contain large errors. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 55.0% for Clinton and 45.1% for Trump. To compare: Only 45.1% was obtained by Clinton in the Suffolk University poll on August 28, for Trump this result was only 0.0%.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 54.7% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Pennsylvania. In comparison to her numbers in the Suffolk University poll Clinton's poll average is 0.3 percentage points lower. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 54.5% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. This means that Polly's forecast is 0.5 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error suggests that this difference is negligible.