Susquehanna published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Susquehanna poll results
According to the results, 47.0% of participants will cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 37.0% will cast a ballot for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from July 31 to August 4 with 772 likely voters. If one accounts for the poll's sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points, the difference between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can include large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 56.0% for Clinton and 44.1% for Trump. In the most recent Susquehanna poll on August 28 Clinton obtained only 44.1%, while Trump obtained only 0.0%.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Pennsylvania has Clinton at 54.7% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.3 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Susquehanna poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 54.5% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. This means that the PollyVote is 1.5 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this deviation is insignificant.