Ohio: Clinton holds small lead in new Monmouth poll
Monmouth published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Ohio is traditionally a purple state, where the GOP and the Democrats have historically gained similar voter support. This is the reason why the election outcome in that state is regarded crucial in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.
Monmouth poll results
Of those who answered the question, 43.0% said that they would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 39.0% declared that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 18 to August 21 among 402 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-4.9 points. This means that the levels of voter support for the Democratic and the Republican candidate do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, since they can contain large biases. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 52.4% for Clinton and 47.6% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Ohio has Clinton at 52.2% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the Monmouth poll Clinton's poll average is 0.2 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.0% of the two-party vote in Ohio. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 0.4 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin shows that this difference is insignificant.