Results of a new national poll carried out by UPI/CVOTER were spread. The poll asked interviewees for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
UPI/CVOTER poll results
Of those who responded, 50.0% said that they will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 47.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The Internet poll was conducted between August 21 and August 27. The sample size was 1157 likely voters. Considering the poll's sampling error of +/-2.9 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls may include large biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 48.5% for Clinton and 51.6% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls sees Trump at 46.9% of the two-party vote. Relative to numbers in the UPI/CVOTER poll Trump's poll average is 4.7 percentage points lower. This difference is outside the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 46.3% of the two-party vote. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 5.3 points below polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this difference is significant.