Gravis released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Gravis poll results
Of those who responded, 54.0% said that they would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 46.0% indicated that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from August 15 to August 15, among a random sample of 1143 participants. The sampling error is +/-2.9 points. This means that the poll results for the two candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, as they may contain large errors. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in figures of 54.0% for Clinton and 46.0% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton can currently count on 53.2% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls. This value is 0.8 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Gravis poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. This means that the PollyVote is 0.3 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's margin of error.