NBC/SurveyMonkey released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
NBC/SurveyMonkey poll results
According to the results, 48.0% of respondents will give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 42.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 22 to August 28 via Internet. A total of 24104 participants responded. The error margin is +/-0.6 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for the Republican and the Democratic candidate differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, since they may include large errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 46.7% for Clinton and 53.3% for Trump. On August 24 Clinton received 54.4% in the NBC/SurveyMonkey poll and Trump received only 0.0%.
Results in comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of polls, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 46.8%. This value is 6.5 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the NBC/SurveyMonkey poll. This margin is outside the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 46.3% of the two-party vote. This means that the PollyVote is 7.0 points below polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error indicates that this deviation is significant.