NBC-WSJ-Marist published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
NBC-WSJ-Marist poll results
Of those who replied, 48.0% said that they intend to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 37.0% said that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 3 to August 7. A total of 834 registered voters responded. Taking into account the poll's margin of error of +/-3.4 percentage points, the difference in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, as they may contain large biases. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 56.5% for Clinton and 43.5% for Trump. On August 28 Clinton received only 43.5% in the NBC-WSJ-Marist poll and Trump received only 0.0%.
Results compared to other polls
Clinton can currently count on 54.7% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Pennsylvania. Relative to her numbers in the NBC-WSJ-Marist poll Clinton's poll average is 1.9 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 54.5% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. This means that Polly's prediction is 2.0 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this deviation is negligible.