NBC-WSJ-Marist poll in Pennsylvania: Clinton with 11 points lead
By NBC-WSJ-Marist released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
NBC-WSJ-Marist poll results
Of those who responded, 48.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 37.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from August 3 to August 7 among 834 registered voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, don't be too confident the results of an individual poll. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, you should look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 56.5% for Clinton and 43.5% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
An average of recent polls in Pennsylvania sees Clinton at 54.5% of the two-party vote. Compared to her numbers in the NBC-WSJ-Marist poll Clinton's poll average is 2 percentage points lower. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 54.4% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. Hence, Polly's forecast is 2.1 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.
