Leading indicators model: Clinton is in the lead

The Leading indicators model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 52.0% for Clinton, and 48.0% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be treated with caution, because they often contain substantial biases. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.2%. Relative to numbers in the Leading indicators model Clinton's econometric model average is 2.8 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.7 percentage points more compared to the results of the Leading indicators model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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