Leading indicators model: Clinton is in the lead
The Leading indicators model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 52.0% for Clinton, and 48.0% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be treated with caution, because they often contain substantial biases. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.2%. Relative to numbers in the Leading indicators model Clinton's econometric model average is 2.8 percentage points lower.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.7 percentage points more compared to the results of the Leading indicators model.