Quinnipiac released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Quinnipiac poll results
According to the results, 52.0% of participants indicated that they would cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 42.0% plan to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from July 30 to August 7, among a random sample of 815 likely voters. Given the poll's margin of error of +/-3.4 percentage points, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they may incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in values of 55.3% for Clinton and 44.7% for Trump. For comparison: Only 44.7% was gained by Clinton in the Quinnipiac poll on August 28, for Trump this result was only 0.0%.
Results compared to other polls
Looking at an average of Pennsylvania polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 54.6%. This value is 0.7 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Quinnipiac poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 54.5% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. This means that Polly's forecast is 0.8 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error indicates that this deviation is negligible.