Trump and Clinton neck-and-neck in new Electoral-cycle model

The Electoral-cycle model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 48.6% for Clinton, and 51.4% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, you should not put too much trust in the results of a single econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, you should use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Trump can currently count on 50.8% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. Compared to numbers in the Electoral-cycle model Trump's econometric model average is 0.6 percentage points lower.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 46.3% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 5.1 percentage points less compared to the results of the Electoral-cycle model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.