Trump and Clinton neck-and-neck in new Electoral-cycle model
The Electoral-cycle model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 48.6% for Clinton, and 51.4% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, you should not put too much trust in the results of a single econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, you should use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
Comparison to other econometric models
Trump can currently count on 50.8% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. Compared to numbers in the Electoral-cycle model Trump's econometric model average is 0.6 percentage points lower.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 46.3% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 5.1 percentage points less compared to the results of the Electoral-cycle model.