Jérôme & Jérôme model: Clinton tied with Trump

The Jérôme & Jérôme model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model predicts that Clinton and Trump will each win 50% of the two-party vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, because they often incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 49.2%. In comparison to the average forecast of other models Clinton performed 0.9 percentage points better in the Jérôme & Jérôme model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.7% and Trump 46.3% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 3.6 percentage points less when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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