Issues and Leaders model: Clinton with small lead
The Issues and Leaders model provided an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 51.9% for Clinton, and 48.1% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Individual index models may contain substantial errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Instead of relying on results from single index models, one should use combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.
Comparison to other index models
An average of recent index models sees Clinton at 54.0% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.1 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model.
The Issues and Leaders model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issues and Leaders model for Clinton are thus 1.8 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.