Issue-index model: Clinton with clear lead
The Issue-index model enters the index models component of the combined PollyVote. It currently predicts a major vote share of 56.2% for Clinton, and 43.8% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Individual index models may include large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Instead of relying on results from single index models, you should look at combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Results compared to other index models
Clinton currently achieves 54.1% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent index models. In comparison to numbers in the Issue-index index model Clinton's index model average is 2.1 percentage points lower.
The Issue-index model compared with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issue-index model for Clinton are thus 2.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.