Fiscal model model shows Trump in the lead
The Fiscal model model provided an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will garner 48.2% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 51.8%.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they can incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Comparison to other econometric models
If we look at an average of econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 50.8%. In comparison to numbers in the Fiscal model model Trump's econometric model average is 1 percentage point worse.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 46.3% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 5.5 percentage points less compared to the results of the Fiscal model model.