Fair model: Trump with clear lead

The Fair model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 44.0% for Clinton, and 56.0% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they often incorporate large errors. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models has Trump at 50.8% of the two-party vote. Relative to numbers in the Fair model Trump's econometric model average is 5.2 percentage points lower.

The Fair model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The current PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 46.3% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 9.7 percentage points less compared to the results of the Fair model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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