DeSart model: Clinton trails by a small margin

The DeSart model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will garner 48.1% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 51.9%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, one should not put too much trust in the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, forecasting research recommends to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 50.9%. Compared to numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 1.1 percentage points worse.

The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 46.3% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 5.6 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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